Aguascalientes, Ags., November 5th, 2024 - José Paulo Bassol Martínez, Dean of the School of Law of the Aguascalientes campus Universidad Panamericana campus Aguascalientes and expert in international politics, provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the U.S. presidential presidential elections in the United States.. This approach examines the impact that the results of these presidential elections will have on the global economy and the implications for Mexico, particularly in its trade and political trade and political relations with its main economic partner.
With the U.S. presidential election 2024 just around the corner, the political landscape is full of uncertainty and expectation. According to Mtro. Bassol's analysis, an extremely close election race is expected between the candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trumpwith a minimal difference in the polls of approximately 2%, suggesting a very close election.
"The current technical tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump shows us how close this election will be, similar to those of previous years, such as Al Gore vs. George Bush in 2000 or Trump vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016,"Bassol noted. These types of elections tend to have unpredictable results due to the system of the U.S. Electoral Collegewhere the candidate who wins the majority of the popular vote does not necessarily win.
The electoral system in the United States is based on the Electoral Collegewhere the votes of the citizens determine the winner in each state, and the electors of each state, in turn, elect the president. This system can generate different results than the popular vote, prioritizing state representation.
The economy and trade in the electoral race
The results of the U.S. presidential election will not only impact domestic politics, but also the global economy and the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship. In particular, for Mexico, economic dependence economic dependence on the United States makes the outcome of these elections critical. According to the academic, the economic policies of both candidates are very different, which could have significant consequences for Mexico.
"Donald Trump has shown a much more protectionist and anti-free trade approach "Bassol noted.During his previous presidency, he attempted to dismantle or modify key international agreements such as the TPP and NAFTA, which later resulted in the T-MEC. In contrast, Kamala Harris is more in favor of respecting the international legal order, which would benefit trade stability.".
This opposing approach by the candidates could influence the T-MEC and other trade agreements, with a direct impact on the Mexican economy and exports.with a direct impact on the Mexican economy and exports.
Impact on U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations.
With the recent election of Claudia Sheinbaum as president of Mexico, bilateral relations with the United States are in the spotlight. Bassol believes that a Kamala Harris presidency could facilitate a closer relationship between the two countries due to an ideological convergence. Both leaders share a similar agenda on issues such as human rights, the environment and gender equality.
"It would be historic to see two women as presidents of both nations", he commented. This could lead to greater collaboration on issues of common interest, but it will also depend on the alignment of their political agendas.
On the other hand, if Trump returns to power, the specialist anticipates a more tense relationship, especially on issues of migration and border security..
"Trump has promised to further toughen his immigration stance, complete the border wall and implement stricter policies on trade and security issues, which could lead to significant tensions between the two countries", he explained.
Economic effects in Mexico of a victory by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
A key point in Bassol's analysis is the coincidence of presidential changes in Mexico and the United States, which generates economic uncertainty both regionally and globally.
Uncertainty is already affecting the Mexican economy," said Bassol."Bassol pointed out. "Particularly because of the peso devaluation and investors' caution in making important decisions.".
According to Bassol, this situation could continue in the coming months, as the government platforms of both Sheinbaum and the next president in the United States are defined. It is critical for Mexico to closely observe the plans of both U.S. candidates and analyze how they align or diverge from the new administration in Mexico. This will have important implications for issues such as Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade, security and human rights.security and human rights.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding this election period, Bassol concludes with an optimistic view of bilateral relations:
"We hope that whoever becomes president of the United States will be able to establish a constructive relationship with Mexico, and that both the new administration in Mexico and our northern neighbor will work to our mutual benefit. the new administration in Mexico and in our neighbor to the north will work to our mutual benefit.".
