ZAPOPAN, Jalisco; January 10, 2024. Universidad Panamericana Guadalajara Campus brought together Dr. Nora Claudia Ampudia Márquez, Dr. Alejandro Rodríguez Magaña and Dr. Israel Macías López, professors of the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences at a press conference in which they shared the economic outlook for the State of Jalisco, nationally and globally in 2024.
Outlook for Jalisco
Regarding Jalisco's economic expectations for this year, Dr. Nora Claudia Ampudia Márquez stated that "in terms of formal job creation, we are in fourth place nationally, and so farthis six-year term, in second place, with 62,395 formal jobs".
In turn, the Panamericana professor anticipates a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.8%. This forecast is accompanied by the generation of 72,279 new formal jobs.
However, inflation in Jalisco is expected to exceed the national average (4%). With a projected population of 8,778,827 inhabitants this year, life expectancy at birth is expected to reach 76.02 years.
National focus
For Dr. Israel Macías López, one of the great achievements of this administration has to do with the increase in the minimum wage. The general minimum wage changes from 207.44 to 248.93 pesos per day. This represents a 20% increase. "We can say that this year 2024 the minimum wage is equivalent in purchasing power to what we had in the country back in 1983."
Regarding 2023, Dr. Israel Macias emphasized that "the whole of last year was about fighting and lowering inflation. We reached almost 9% and now we are going to close with 4.5, 4.6. So, this is good news".
For this year, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.3%, inflation of 4%, an exchange rate against the dollar of between $18 and $19 pesos, an interest rate of between 11% and 10%, and the creation of 560,000 formal jobs are expected.
Overview
Dr. Alejandro Rodriguez Magaña forecasts a global growth of 2.6% by 2024, "the labor market is expected to improve which is already below the long-term level, which is somehow leading to an increase in the costof labor.
Monetary tightening by central banks is expected, although with variations, as in the case of Japan. Manufacturing recovery and sustained consumption are key factors, although core inflation is projected to be between 2% and 2.5%.
Challenges and Recommendations
Dr. Rodriguez emphasized the persistent concern about a recession, driven by political risks and electoral uncertainty, especially in the United States. "When we have already made the electoral decision in the middle of this year,we will be closely watching the evolution of the elections in theUnited States," he said.
As recommendations, the Panamericana professor suggests careful liquidity management, the acquisition of quality products in a high-demand market and thorough planning in negotiations, considering multiple scenarios. He also emphasized the importance of trading within currency ranges and hedging against market risks.
The Universidad Panamericana Campus Guadalajara is proud to have brought together leading academics in this event, which undoubtedly enriches the debate and understanding of the economic challenges and strategies for sustainable growth in the current context of the State of Jalisco, nationally and globally.
